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尼可拉斯楊Live精

@尼可拉斯楊Live精 · US

本頻道聚焦於我對科技、財經與股票市場的觀察與思考，嘗試從不同於主流敘事的角度，拆解正在發生的變化，提供更具前瞻性的視野。我擁有 18 年金融業經驗（15年深圳、3年新加坡），並累積 10 年以上美股投資實戰，曾任職於私人銀行、風險管理單位，以及企業研究與財報分析相關工作，長期關注資本市場結構與產業趨勢。2022 年移居新加坡，現在主業是投資+Youtube。業餘時間長期研究歷史、宗教與文明脈絡，也歡迎訂閱主頻道 @尼可拉斯楊 🔗 https://www.youtube.com/@NicolasYoung Ins：https://www.instagram.com/nicolasyoungyt/ 投資免責聲明：本頻道所有內容基於公開資訊、市場分析與個人觀點，僅供教育與娛樂參考，不構成任何投資建議、財務諮詢或任何金融商品之買賣推薦。投資必然存在風險，包括可能損失全部本金，過去績效並不代表未來表現，請觀眾務必自行評估並自行承擔相關風險與責任。如需作出任何投資決定，請務必諮詢具資格之專業財務或投資顧問，本頻道對於觀眾依本頻道內容操作而產生之任何損失，概不負責。

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板塊大輪動的機會來了！黃金白銀、軟體股、半導體、金融股，PLTR抄底還是逃跑？還有黃金先行指標分享！YouTube 影片

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分享股票見頂檢測AI提示詞：2029年AI泡沫破裂？三大歷史泡沫：鐵路/電力/網路泡沫揭露最終見頂信號！YouTube 影片

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有點穩了。我一股沒賣，大跌加倉，投資心理是發財關鍵。YouTube 影片

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板塊大輪動的機會來了！黃金白銀、軟體股、半導體、金融股，PLTR抄底還是逃跑？還有黃金先行指標分享！

📌投資新手一定要有一個估值工具：Investing.com優惠連結👉 https://www.investing-referral.com/nicholas/ 美股、日股、台股、港股、加拿大、歐洲都有！還有超級策略！每月1號跟著調倉位！ 🔥 點擊連結購買，才有官網 55% + 額外 15%（疊加），僅限8月！ 🎁 我的專享連結，可額外享 15% 折扣！ 💡 這種折扣不常有！手慢無！美股風險掃描器2.0V：https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VVIxaEVdT1lk4q6YW4zEYAiZRdObzJ9S6LS42p4pPF0/edit?usp=sharing 黃金先行指標COT：https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/interactive-charts/GC*0 白銀先行指標COT：https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/interactive-charts/SI*0 —————— 美股券商moomoo新客大禮：最高可獲得$1000 英偉達股票+ 8.1% APY （限時 2 個月） 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 新加坡新客好禮：入金 S$5,000，得 S$100 英偉達股票+ S$60 交易回饋券 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0y7C4G 在APP搜索栏搜索“專屬福利", 然后加入我的入金碼“NICOLAS88” 就能领取教程：https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d-Y1Egt6pYJH5e9fbh1QgjC5L6dEB4q4/view?usp=drive_link 其他地區 moomoo 用戶福利 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 香港開戶富途牛牛兌換碼：【Nicolas】香港牛牛：最高得$1800 港幣+ 額外$200 現金券免責聲明： *活動附帶條款和條件，其他費用適用。投資有風險，此文不構成任何投資建議。股票獎勵的價值將根據其市場情況而變化。投資於資本市場產品涉及風險。本文所表達的全部觀點均來自尼可拉斯楊的獨立意見。 moomoo 證券（新加坡）及其相關公司均不內容及觀點負責。此廣告未經新加坡金融管理局審查 —————— 主頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@NicolasYoung 副頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@nicolasyounglive —————— 市場是不是正在大反轉？當資金從高估值的半導體與晶片股撤出，流向被低估的醫療、金融、軍工以及黃金板塊時，我們正在經歷一場史詩級的資產大輪動。本集影片將為您深度解析2026年當下最真實的美股宏觀環境，帶您看透機構操盤的真實套路，避免成為散戶踩踏中的犧牲品。近期，CNN恐懼與貪婪指數在一個月內出現劇烈波動，這背後反映出的是市場情緒的極端轉換。當費城半導體指數（SOX）經歷暴跌時，散戶恐慌拋售，而機構卻在底部悄悄吸籌，隨後推動板塊迅速回血。這就是典型的「水床效應」——在全球槓桿率高企、增量資金不足的情況下，資金只能在不同板塊間來回切換。從輝達（Nvidia）、台積電（TSMC）等熱門科技股，到亞馬遜、谷歌，再到防禦性極強的藍籌股與大宗商品，資金的流向完美契合了美林時鐘的投資週期。要在這種震盪與輪動中獲利，我們必須回歸投資的本質：估值與自由現金流。誠如股神巴菲特的投資哲學，尋找股價低於公允價值的優質公司，耐心等待擊球區的到來。影片中，我們不僅探討了軟體股、醫藥股（如禮來、強生）和金融股（如摩根大通）的潛在機會，更揭示了接下來市場即將炒作的新熱點——企業股票回購潮。當公司擁有龐大現金流並開始回購自家股票時，往往是股價見底反彈的強烈信號。最後，針對近期備受關注的黃金市場，我將為大家獨家分享一個勝率極高的先行指標：COT黃金（美國商品期貨交易委員會發布的黃金期貨持倉報告）。透過觀察大宗買家的需求線，你將能提前預判機構的建倉動作，不再盲目追高殺跌。無論你是左側交易的價值投資者，還是右側交易的趨勢跟隨者，這集影片都將為你提供清晰的市場導航。 #美股分析 #資產輪動 #半導體 #晶片股 #黃金價格 #黃金投資 #巴菲特 #價值投資 #美林時鐘 #股票回購 #輝達 #台積電 #宏觀經濟 #美股投資 Is the stock market undergoing a massive reversal? As capital flows out of highly valued semiconductor and chip stocks and pours into lagging sectors like healthcare, finance, defense, and precious metals, we are witnessing an epic asset rotation. In this video, we provide an in-depth macro analysis of the US stock market in 2026, exposing the institutional manipulation tactics that often trap retail investors. Recently, the CNN Fear & Greed Index has shown dramatic swings, reflecting extreme shifts in market sentiment. When the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) plummeted, retail investors panic-sold, while institutional smart money quietly accumulated at the bottom, driving a rapid recovery. This is the classic "waterbed effect" in action. With global leverage at all-time highs and a lack of new liquidity, capital has no choice but to rotate between sectors. From popular tech giants like Nvidia and TSMC to defensive blue-chip stocks and commodities, the flow of money aligns perfectly with the Investment Clock cycle. To profit in this volatile, rotational market, investors must return to the fundamentals: valuation and free cash flow. Echoing Warren Buffett's value investing philosophy, the key is finding high-quality companies trading below their fair value and waiting patiently for the perfect pitch. We explore potential opportunities in software, healthcare (e.g., Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson), and financial stocks (e.g., JPMorgan Chase), and reveal the next major market catalyst: corporate share buybacks. When cash-rich companies start buying back their own stock, it often signals a strong bottom and future price appreciation. Finally, for those tracking the precious metals market, I share a highly accurate, free leading indicator for gold: the COT (Commitments of Traders) Gold report. By analyzing the demand line of large institutional buyers, you can anticipate smart money positioning and avoid buying at the top. Whether you are a contrarian value investor or a trend follower, this video provides the ultimate roadmap for navigating today's complex markets. #USStocks #AssetRotation #Semiconductors #GoldPrice #GoldInvesting #WarrenBuffett #ValueInvesting #StockMarketAnalysis #ShareBuybacks #Nvidia #TSMC #Macroeconomics #InvestingTips —————— 📌 投資風險免責聲明本頻道所有內容僅代表個人觀點與研究分享，僅供學習與參考，不構成任何形式之投資建議、投資邀約或買賣推薦。金融市場具有不確定性與波動風險，過往表現不代表未來結果。任何投資決策請依自身財務狀況與風險承受能力獨立判斷，盈虧自負。本頻道對因使用相關內容所產生之任何直接或間接損失，概不負責。 📌 Investment Disclaimer All content on this channel reflects personal opinions and research and is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendations, or solicitation. Financial markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Viewers are responsible for their own investment decisions. The channel assumes no liability for any losses incurred.

觀看 82,293按讚 2,639留言 167

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分享股票見頂檢測AI提示詞：2029年AI泡沫破裂？三大歷史泡沫：鐵路/電力/網路泡沫揭露最終見頂信號！

美股券商moomoo新客大禮：最高可獲得$1000 英偉達股票+ 8.1% APY （限時 2 個月） 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 新加坡新客好禮：入金 S$5,000，得 S$100 英偉達股票+ S$60 交易回饋券 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0y7C4G 在APP搜索栏搜索“專屬福利", 然后加入我的入金碼“NICOLAS88” 就能领取教程：https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d-Y1Egt6pYJH5e9fbh1QgjC5L6dEB4q4/view?usp=drive_link 其他地區 moomoo 用戶福利 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 香港開戶富途牛牛兌換碼：【Nicolas】香港牛牛：最高得$1800 港幣+ 額外$200 現金券免責聲明： *活動附帶條款和條件，其他費用適用。投資有風險，此文不構成任何投資建議。股票獎勵的價值將根據其市場情況而變化。投資於資本市場產品涉及風險。本文所表達的全部觀點均來自尼可拉斯楊的獨立意見。 moomoo 證券（新加坡）及其相關公司均不內容及觀點負責。此廣告未經新加坡金融管理局審查股票宏觀風險掃描器2.0: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VVIxaEVdT1lk4q6YW4zEYAiZRdObzJ9S6LS42p4pPF0/edit?usp=sharing —————— 📌投資新手一定要有一個估值工具：Investing.com優惠連結👉 https://www.investing-referral.com/nicholas/ 美股、日股、台股、港股、加拿大、歐洲都有！還有超級策略！每月1號跟著調倉位！ 🔥 點擊連結購買，才有官網 55% + 額外 15%（疊加），僅限8月！ 🎁 我的專享連結，可額外享 15% 折扣！ 💡 這種折扣不常有！手慢無！ —————— 主頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@NicolasYoung 副頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@nicolasyounglive —————— 投資市場沒有只漲不跌的神話，黑天鵝事件隨時可能發生。在今天的影片中，我們將跳出短期的市場喧囂，深入探討當前美股面臨的宏觀風險，以及大家最關心的核心問題：我們現在是否已經到了AI泡沫的頂峰？這是一個向下破裂的轉折點，還是新一輪爆發的起點？首先，我們盤點了當前市場的短期風險壓力：中東地緣政治衝突的延續、美債與日債殖利率的波動，以及市場對聯準會（Fed）潛在利率政策變化的擔憂。2022年快速升息導致納斯達克大跌的歷史仍歷歷在目，槓桿率居高不下的情況下，一旦發生去槓桿踩踏，大盤將承受巨大壓力。在個股方面，我們透過SNDK的最新財報，分析了市場對AI硬體與記憶體板塊的嚴苛預期。高達84.6%的毛利率能否維持？未來的HBF技術能否改變記憶體的週期宿命？市場在砸盤與接盤之間產生了巨大的分歧。更重要的是，我們回顧了歷史上三次著名的技術革命泡沫——1840年代的英國鐵路狂熱、19世紀末的電力早期泡沫，以及2000年的網際網路泡沫。總結出導致泡沫破裂的三大元兇：超高槓桿、過度重複建設，以及缺乏持續的現金流變現能力。對比當下的AI產業，雖然微軟、亞馬遜和Palantir等巨頭已經證明了AI的變現能力，但我們仍需警惕數據中心資本支出（CapEx）過大的潛在風險。在當前「盈利牛市」與「利率熊市」拉扯的宏觀環境中，指數大概率不會徹底崩盤，但也難以無腦大漲。最優的應對策略是：保留已被盈利驗證的核心AI倉位，減持弱勢股，並做好對沖以降低尾部風險。永遠不要用急用的錢投資，做好倉位管理，才能在黑天鵝中存活，迎接下一次收穫的季節。 Is the AI Bubble Popping? Macro Risks and Stock Market Strategy Explained In investing, there is no such thing as a market that only goes up. Black swan events can appear at any moment. In today’s deep dive, we step back from the daily noise to analyze the looming macro risks facing the US stock market and address the most critical question on every investor's mind: Have we reached the peak of the AI bubble? Is this a turning point toward a crash, or the beginning of a massive new growth cycle? First, we break down the short-term macro pressures: ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the intricate relationship between US and Japanese bond yields, and the anxiety surrounding the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move. The memory of 2022's aggressive rate hikes, which caused the Nasdaq to plummet, is still fresh. With US market margin debt and leverage at historical highs, any catalyst could trigger a painful deleveraging event. On the micro-level, we examine the latest earnings report from SNDK. Despite massive revenue growth and an 84.6% gross margin, the stock dropped. Why? Because the market's appetite for AI growth has become insatiable, and fears of peaking margins are taking hold. We explore whether next-generation HBF technology can finally break the traditional cyclical nature of the memory sector. Most importantly, we draw critical parallels between today's AI boom and three historical tech bubbles: the 1840s British Railway Mania, the early Electricity Bubble, and the 2000 Dot-Com Crash. Historically, bubbles burst due to high leverage, overbuilding without demand, and a lack of cash flow. While the AI sector has its risks, companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Palantir are already proving that enterprise AI can generate real, sustainable revenue—a key difference from past crashes. In this current tug-of-war between an "earnings bull market" and an "interest rate bear market," the optimal strategy is defensive growth. Hold on to high-conviction AI core positions with proven cash flows, trim the weaker stocks, and manage your portfolio's tail risk. Survive the black swans, manage your cash wisely, and you will be ready for the next harvest. (Check the pinned comment for the AI Macro Risk Scanning Prompt mentioned in the video.) #AIBubble #StockMarket #Nvidia #TSMC #Investing #Nasdaq #FederalReserve #Palantir #MacroEconomics #TechStocks —————— 📌 投資風險免責聲明本頻道所有內容僅代表個人觀點與研究分享，僅供學習與參考，不構成任何形式之投資建議、投資邀約或買賣推薦。金融市場具有不確定性與波動風險，過往表現不代表未來結果。任何投資決策請依自身財務狀況與風險承受能力獨立判斷，盈虧自負。本頻道對因使用相關內容所產生之任何直接或間接損失，概不負責。 📌 Investment Disclaimer All content on this channel reflects personal opinions and research and is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendations, or solicitation. Financial markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Viewers are responsible for their own investment decisions. The channel assumes no liability for any losses incurred.

觀看 74,916按讚 2,392留言 187

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有點穩了。我一股沒賣，大跌加倉，投資心理是發財關鍵。

📌投資新手一定要有一個估值工具：Investing.com優惠連結👉 https://www.investing-referral.com/nicholas/ 美股、日股、台股、港股、加拿大、歐洲都有！還有超級策略！每月1號跟著調倉位！ 🔥 點擊連結購買，才有官網 55% + 額外 15%（疊加），僅限8月！ 🎁 我的專享連結，可額外享 15% 折扣！ 💡 這種折扣不常有！手慢無！ —————— 美股券商moomoo新客大禮：最高可獲得$1000 英偉達股票+ 8.1% APY （限時 2 個月） 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 新加坡新客好禮：入金 S$5,000，得 S$100 英偉達股票+ S$60 交易回饋券 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0y7C4G 在APP搜索栏搜索“專屬福利", 然后加入我的入金碼“NICOLAS88” 就能领取教程：https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d-Y1Egt6pYJH5e9fbh1QgjC5L6dEB4q4/view?usp=drive_link 其他地區 moomoo 用戶福利 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 香港開戶富途牛牛兌換碼：【Nicolas】香港牛牛：最高得$1800 港幣+ 額外$200 現金券免責聲明： *活動附帶條款和條件，其他費用適用。投資有風險，此文不構成任何投資建議。股票獎勵的價值將根據其市場情況而變化。投資於資本市場產品涉及風險。本文所表達的全部觀點均來自尼可拉斯楊的獨立意見。 moomoo 證券（新加坡）及其相關公司均不內容及觀點負責。此廣告未經新加坡金融管理局審查 —————— 主頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@NicolasYoung 副頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@nicolasyounglive —————— 歡迎回到頻道。最近全球股市經歷了一波劇烈的震盪與大跌，很多朋友在社群上分享了他們恐慌、甚至出現「焦慮軀體化」的經歷。看著帳戶縮水，吃不下飯、睡不著覺、甚至想盲目斬倉逃跑，這都是非常真實的生理反應。但在我多年的金融市場交易經驗中，我深刻體會到一件事：比選股、看財報更重要的，是你的「投資心理」。心理素質不行，再好的股票也會被市場的波動震出局。在這期投資筆記中，我們不談複雜的量化模型，也不預測明天的漲跌，而是要深入探討投資的本質與交易心理學。當大跌引發大腦杏仁核分泌恐慌多巴胺時，我們該如何應對？（影片中我會分享一個利用腦科學、維生素D3與陽光來快速恢復抗壓彈性的小秘訣！）更重要的是，我為大家總結了市場上真正能持續盈利的高手，通常具備的 4種「發財性格」：對金錢有鈍感，不急於證明自己：帳戶的漲跌不會輕易左右他們的情緒。拒絕被狂喜或暴怒支配，避免在極端情緒下做出加槓桿或死扛的錯誤決策。用「機率」思考的系統玩家：普通散戶總想著「猜對」，而高手看重的是「正期望值」。他們早已把失敗和黑天鵝事件的成本（如止損、Put對衝）算入交易計畫中。能延遲滿足，扛得住無聊與孤獨：股市最難的是「等待」。長期的超額收益往往來自幾段大行情，其餘時間都是枯燥的紀律執行。賺大錢靠的不是頻繁操作，而是利弗莫爾所說的「坐功」。先當悲觀主義者，再當有紀律的樂觀主義者：在下注前想好最壞的情況（破產、估值壓縮、最大回撤），制定好買入VOO、QQQ等藍籌ETF或個股的底線規則。當風險可控時，才敢於重倉。投資從來不是天生就會的技能，而是在無數次虧損與盈利的循環中，被市場反覆捶打，磨掉情緒，最終回歸冷靜與客觀的職業狀態。「痛苦 + 反思 = 進步」。感謝大家的收看。這是一場去槓桿的恐慌踩踏，基本面並未改變，不論是記憶體還是光模塊，我們都需要多一點耐心。明天同一時間，我將帶大家回顧歷史上的鐵路、電氣與互聯網泡沫，看看我們現在的 AI 投資到底處於什麼階段。我們下期見！ #股市大跌 #投資心理學 #交易策略 #股票分析 #美股 #ETF #VOO #QQQ #AI概念股 #財商教育 In today's investment notes, we aren't discussing complex quantitative models or predicting tomorrow's price action. Instead, we are diving deep into the essence of investing and trading psychology. When a market crash triggers your amygdala to release fear-inducing dopamine, how should you react? (In the video, I share a neuroscientific trick involving Vitamin D3, K2, and sunlight to quickly restore your stress resilience!) Most importantly, I have observed and summarized the 4 personality traits of highly profitable investors: Financial Insensitivity & No Need to Prove Themselves: Daily fluctuations don't dictate their emotions. They avoid the extreme euphoria or despair that leads retail investors to dangerous over-leveraging or holding onto losing positions. Thinking in Probabilities: While amateurs want to be "right" every time, pros focus on a positive expected value. They factor in the probability of failure and black swan events, preparing hedges or stop-losses in advance. Delayed Gratification & Enduring Boredom: The hardest part of the stock market is waiting. Long-term wealth comes from a few massive trends, while the rest of the time is incredibly boring. As Jesse Livermore said, the big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting. Pessimistic First, Disciplined Optimist Second: They anticipate the worst-case scenarios before taking a position (e.g., maximum drawdown, valuation compression). Once the downside is calculated and rules are set (like consistently buying VOO, QQQ, or blue-chip stocks), they take calculated risks with conviction. No one is born a great investor. This mindset is forged through endless cycles of wins and losses, stripping away unnecessary emotions until you reach a calm, objective, and professional state. Remember: Pain + Reflection = Progress. Thank you for watching. The recent crash was largely a deleveraging panic; the fundamentals of sectors like memory and optical modules haven't changed. Have patience. Tomorrow, I will update you with a historical analysis of the railroad, electricity, and dot-com bubbles to help us understand exactly where we are in the current AI investment cycle. See you in the next one! #StockMarketCrash #TradingPsychology #InvestmentStrategy #StockAnalysis #USStocks #ETF #VOO #QQQ #AIStocks #FinancialEducation —————— 📌 投資風險免責聲明本頻道所有內容僅代表個人觀點與研究分享，僅供學習與參考，不構成任何形式之投資建議、投資邀約或買賣推薦。金融市場具有不確定性與波動風險，過往表現不代表未來結果。任何投資決策請依自身財務狀況與風險承受能力獨立判斷，盈虧自負。本頻道對因使用相關內容所產生之任何直接或間接損失，概不負責。 📌 Investment Disclaimer All content on this channel reflects personal opinions and research and is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendations, or solicitation. Financial markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Viewers are responsible for their own investment decisions. The channel assumes no liability for any losses incurred.

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暴跌全身發冷的真實體感！一股沒賣！堅定信心！

📌投資新手一定要有一個估值工具：Investing.com優惠連結👉 https://www.investing-referral.com/nicholas/ 美股、日股、台股、港股、加拿大、歐洲都有！還有超級策略！每月1號跟著調倉位！ 🔥 點擊連結購買，才有官網 60% + 額外 15%（疊加），僅限7月！ 🎁 我的專享連結，可額外享 15% 折扣！ 💡 這種折扣不常有！手慢無！ —————— 美股券商moomoo新客大禮：最高可獲得$1000 英偉達股票+ 8.1% APY （限時 2 個月） 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 新加坡新客好禮：入金 S$5,000，得 S$100 英偉達股票+ S$60 交易回饋券 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0y7C4G 在APP搜索栏搜索“專屬福利", 然后加入我的入金碼“NICOLAS88” 就能领取教程：https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d-Y1Egt6pYJH5e9fbh1QgjC5L6dEB4q4/view?usp=drive_link 其他地區 moomoo 用戶福利 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 香港開戶富途牛牛兌換碼：【Nicolas】香港牛牛：最高得$1800 港幣+ 額外$200 現金券免責聲明： *活動附帶條款和條件，其他費用適用。投資有風險，此文不構成任何投資建議。股票獎勵的價值將根據其市場情況而變化。投資於資本市場產品涉及風險。本文所表達的全部觀點均來自尼可拉斯楊的獨立意見。 moomoo 證券（新加坡）及其相關公司均不內容及觀點負責。此廣告未經新加坡金融管理局審查 —————— 主頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@NicolasYoung 副頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@nicolasyounglive —————— 這個星期，無數投資者經歷了美股市場的史詩級暴跌，科技股、AI晶片板塊迎來了前所未有的劇烈震盪。從美光（Micron）到SK海力士，曾經盈利豐厚的倉位瞬間面臨巨大回撤。在這種越補越跌、虧損不斷擴大的漆黑夜晚，市場充斥著“記憶體過剩”、“阿斯麥（ASML）危机”、“美聯儲加息”以及“科技巨頭削減資本支出”的恐慌新聞。面對這種讓人全身發冷的踩踏式下跌，我們是不是被AI這個宏大的故事騙了？本期投資筆記，我將非常坦誠地分享我這幾天經歷的恐慌、掙扎與最終的決策。在市場滿地流血的時候，我選擇了動用家庭最後的防線——“黑天鵝基金”來分批加倉。為什麼我敢在這種熔斷級別的恐慌中繼續買入？因為當我們回歸基本面，冷靜分析AI產業鏈的發展、記憶體的產能擴充以及供需預測時，你會發現那些跌到3-5倍Forward PE的晶片巨頭，已經具備了極高的長期持有價值。同時，這期影片我們也要從華爾街的血腥絞肉機中吸取慘痛教訓。我們將深度復盤24歲華爾街投資新星Leopold如何因為4倍槓桿做多AI、做空軟體股而慘遭200億美元爆倉清盤，以及城堡對衝基金（Citadel）如何在背後無情收割。我們也會聊聊為什麼《大空頭》原型Michael Burry的長期做空策略跑輸了標普500指數。在這個充滿“華爾街之狼”的市場裡，散戶想要在美國大選前的劇烈震盪中活下來，唯一的法則就是：控制倉位，拒絕槓桿，堅持深度研究，耐心做多。希望這期影片能給處於焦慮中的你帶來一些理性的思考。如果你也認同長期投資的邏輯，歡迎在留言區與我交流。 #美股大跌 #AI股票 #半導體 #美光 #海力士 #槓桿爆倉 #華爾街 #美股投資 #股票分析 #投資筆記 #黑天鵝事件 This week, countless investors experienced an epic crash in the US stock market, with tech stocks and the AI semiconductor sector facing unprecedented volatility. From Micron to SK Hynix, once highly profitable positions were decimated in a matter of days. In the midst of this terrifying sell-off, where buying the dip only led to deeper losses, the news cycle was flooded with panic: "memory chip oversupply," "ASML's crisis," "Fed rate hikes," and "big tech cutting CAPEX." Facing this chilling stampede, it's easy to wonder: have we all been fooled by the grand narrative of Artificial Intelligence? In this episode of my investment journal, I share the raw reality of navigating this market crash—the fear, the doubt, and the ultimate decisions made in the dark. While there was blood in the streets, I made the tough call to tap into our family's "Black Swan Fund" to accumulate more shares. Why double down during a panic? Because when you strip away the fear and look closely at the fundamentals of the AI supply chain, memory chip production capacity, and supply-demand forecasts, tech giants trading at 3-5x forward PE present an incredible long-term opportunity. We also dive deep into the brutal realities of Wall Street. I break down the tragic story of 24-year-old rising star Leopold, whose $20 billion fund was liquidated due to a 4x leverage margin call on AI and software stocks, and how players like Citadel capitalized on the bloodbath. We also analyze why famous short-seller Michael Burry has historically underperformed the S&P 500. In a market filled with Wall Street wolves, the only way for retail investors to survive the extreme volatility leading up to the US election is this: control your position size, strictly avoid leverage, do your own fundamental research, and hold for the long term. I hope this video brings some rational perspective to your trading strategy. #USStockMarket #StockCrash #AIStocks #Semiconductors #Micron #SKHynix #MarginCall #WallStreet #Investing #ValueInvesting #BlackSwan —————— 📌 投資風險免責聲明本頻道所有內容僅代表個人觀點與研究分享，僅供學習與參考，不構成任何形式之投資建議、投資邀約或買賣推薦。金融市場具有不確定性與波動風險，過往表現不代表未來結果。任何投資決策請依自身財務狀況與風險承受能力獨立判斷，盈虧自負。本頻道對因使用相關內容所產生之任何直接或間接損失，概不負責。 📌 Investment Disclaimer All content on this channel reflects personal opinions and research and is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendations, or solicitation. Financial markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Viewers are responsible for their own investment decisions. The channel assumes no liability for any losses incurred.

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Ai投資，10個月回本，利潤6倍。

📌投資新手一定要有一個估值工具：Investing.com優惠連結👉 https://www.investing-referral.com/nicholas/ 美股、日股、台股、港股、加拿大、歐洲都有！還有超級策略！每月1號跟著調倉位！ 🔥 點擊連結購買，才有官網 60% + 額外 15%（疊加），僅限7月！ 🎁 我的專享連結，可額外享 15% 折扣！ 💡 這種折扣不常有！手慢無！ —————— 美股券商moomoo新客大禮：最高可獲得$1000 英偉達股票+ 8.1% APY （限時 2 個月） 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 新加坡新客好禮：入金 S$5,000，得 S$100 英偉達股票+ S$60 交易回饋券 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0y7C4G 在APP搜索栏搜索“專屬福利", 然后加入我的入金碼“NICOLAS88” 就能领取教程：https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d-Y1Egt6pYJH5e9fbh1QgjC5L6dEB4q4/view?usp=drive_link 其他地區 moomoo 用戶福利 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 香港開戶富途牛牛兌換碼：【Nicolas】香港牛牛：最高得$1800 港幣+ 額外$200 現金券免責聲明： *活動附帶條款和條件，其他費用適用。投資有風險，此文不構成任何投資建議。股票獎勵的價值將根據其市場情況而變化。投資於資本市場產品涉及風險。本文所表達的全部觀點均來自尼可拉斯楊的獨立意見。 moomoo 證券（新加坡）及其相關公司均不內容及觀點負責。此廣告未經新加坡金融管理局審查 —————— 主頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@NicolasYoung 副頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@nicolasyounglive —————— 這幾天科技股、半導體板塊經歷了劇烈的震盪，許多朋友開始恐慌：AI是不是要重演1999年的互聯網泡沫？這支影片將為你帶來最深度的硬核邏輯分析，我們不看情緒，只看數據與商業本質。我仔細拆解了近期市場上最重要的幾份關鍵資訊：野村證券關於長鑫科技(CXMT)的深度報告、韓國SK證券的記憶體產業分析、美韓舊金山AI峰會高達9500億美元的合作意向，以及最關鍵的——DeepSeek CEO梁文鋒近四個小時的內部投資者會議記錄。透過這些拼圖，我們發現了市場中一個巨大的認知落差。Google、Amazon、Meta、Microsoft等巨頭為何無視股價下跌，依然將資本支出上調至7300億美元瘋狂加碼AI？因為底層的商業邏輯太過驚人。從梁文鋒透露的「十個月回本、六倍利潤」，就能明白為何科技巨頭會不惜溢價搶購GPU與算力設備。1999年賣的是概念，而現在的AI數據中心，蓋起來就有實實在在的現金流。此外，影片也詳細探討了長鑫科技上市後，對Samsung、SK Hynix及全球記憶體晶片市場的真實影響。野村數據顯示，到2030年，算力需求將帶來記憶體市場7倍的增長，而供給端受限於技術與人才瓶頸，擴產根本無法填補這個巨大的需求缺口。記憶體板塊的估值邏輯，正在發生根本性的改變。巴菲特說過：市場短期是投票機，長期是稱重機。面對即將到來的美聯儲決議和科技巨頭財報週，高槓桿帶來的震盪在所難免。投資賺的錢，正是價格與價值之間的認知溫差。最後，這是一份純粹的個人投資筆記與長期趨勢分享，不構成任何投資建議，盈虧自負。為了防止量化基金利用公開語料惡意做空與收割，本頻道不會公開具體的持倉明細與交易記錄。投資路上，悲觀者永遠正確，但賺錢的總是樂觀且有耐心的人。 #AI泡沫 #科技股 #半導體 #DeepSeek #記憶體 #美股分析 #長鑫科技 #財報季 #美聯儲 #投資邏輯 Over the past few days, tech stocks and the semiconductor sector have experienced violent fluctuations, leading many to panic: Is AI repeating the 1999 dot-com bubble? This video provides a deep, hard-core logical analysis of the current market crash. We ignore the emotional noise and focus strictly on data and business fundamentals. I have carefully deconstructed the most critical pieces of information in the market right now: Nomura's in-depth report on Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT), SK Securities' analysis of the memory industry, the massive $950 billion cooperation intent from the US-Korea AI Summit in San Francisco, and most importantly—the leaked four-hour internal investor meeting minutes from DeepSeek CEO Liang Wenfeng. Through these pieces, we found a massive cognitive gap in the market. Why are giants like Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft ignoring falling stock prices and still revising their capital expenditures up to $730 billion to double down on AI? Because the underlying business logic is incredibly lucrative. From Liang Wenfeng's revelation of "a ten-month payback period and six times the profit," it becomes perfectly clear why tech giants are willing to pay a premium for GPUs and computing power. In 1999, companies sold concepts; today, AI data centers generate substantial, immediate cash flow as soon as they are built. Furthermore, this video explores the real impact of CXMT's IPO on Samsung, SK Hynix, and the global memory chip market. Nomura's data suggests that by 2030, computing power demand will drive a 7x growth in the memory market, while supply-side constraints mean expansion cannot fill this massive gap. The valuation logic for the memory sector is undergoing a fundamental shift. As Warren Buffett famously quoted: In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. Facing the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the Big Tech earnings week, volatility driven by high leverage is inevitable. The money made in investing comes precisely from the cognitive temperature difference between price and value. Finally, this is purely a personal investment journal and a sharing of long-term trends; it does not constitute investment advice. You are responsible for your own profits and losses. To prevent quantitative funds from scraping public data for malicious short-selling, this channel will not publicly disclose specific holdings or trading records. In investing, pessimists always sound smart, but it's the optimistic and patient ones who actually make money. #AIBubble #TechStocks #Semiconductors #DeepSeek #MemoryChips #StockMarketAnalysis #CXMT #EarningsSeason #FederalReserve #ValueInvesting —————— 📌 投資風險免責聲明本頻道所有內容僅代表個人觀點與研究分享，僅供學習與參考，不構成任何形式之投資建議、投資邀約或買賣推薦。金融市場具有不確定性與波動風險，過往表現不代表未來結果。任何投資決策請依自身財務狀況與風險承受能力獨立判斷，盈虧自負。本頻道對因使用相關內容所產生之任何直接或間接損失，概不負責。 📌 Investment Disclaimer All content on this channel reflects personal opinions and research and is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendations, or solicitation. Financial markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Viewers are responsible for their own investment decisions. The channel assumes no liability for any losses incurred.

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觀看影片 ↗

小心大事發生！這些日子，多看這些股票，準備抄底！

📌投資新手一定要有一個估值工具：Investing.com優惠連結👉 https://www.investing-referral.com/nicholas/ 美股、日股、台股、港股、加拿大、歐洲都有！還有超級策略！每月1號跟著調倉位！ 🔥 點擊連結購買，才有官網 60% + 額外 15%（疊加），僅限7月！ 🎁 我的專享連結，可額外享 15% 折扣！ 💡 這種折扣不常有！手慢無！ —————— 美股券商moomoo新客大禮：最高可獲得$1000 英偉達股票+ 8.1% APY （限時 2 個月） 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 新加坡新客好禮：入金 S$5,000，得 S$100 英偉達股票+ S$60 交易回饋券 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0y7C4G 在APP搜索栏搜索“專屬福利", 然后加入我的入金碼“NICOLAS88” 就能领取教程：https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d-Y1Egt6pYJH5e9fbh1QgjC5L6dEB4q4/view?usp=drive_link 其他地區 moomoo 用戶福利 👉 點擊連結立即領取：https://start.moomoo.com/0zHMIF 香港開戶富途牛牛兌換碼：【Nicolas】香港牛牛：最高得$1800 港幣+ 額外$200 現金券免責聲明： *活動附帶條款和條件，其他費用適用。投資有風險，此文不構成任何投資建議。股票獎勵的價值將根據其市場情況而變化。投資於資本市場產品涉及風險。本文所表達的全部觀點均來自尼可拉斯楊的獨立意見。 moomoo 證券（新加坡）及其相關公司均不內容及觀點負責。此廣告未經新加坡金融管理局審查 —————— 主頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@NicolasYoung 副頻道：https://www.youtube.com/@nicolasyounglive —————— 全球股市近期迎來劇烈震盪，布倫特原油價格逼近100美元大關，加上地緣政治衝突升溫以及美債30年期利率突破5.1%，市場恐慌情緒蔓延。很多剛踏入股市的新手朋友，面對特斯拉（Tesla）、谷歌（Google）等科技巨頭的暴跌，感到無所適從。今天這支影片，我們將穿透宏觀經濟的迷霧，深度解析近期巨頭們的財報與電話會議，看看在市場極度悲觀的背後，到底隱藏著哪些被錯殺的機會？在市場恐懼加息與戰爭的同時，我們更應該關注企業的基本面與真實盈利能力。近期谷歌財報顯示資本支出創歷史新高，甚至自由現金流轉負，引發市場拋售。但如果你仔細拆解谷歌雲（Google Cloud）高達35.6%的營業利潤率，以及超過5140億美元的未完成訂單，你就會發現：這不是燒錢，而是算力供不應求的「戰略性虧損」。此外，我們透過分析AI應用端龍頭ServiceNow的亮眼數據，可以清晰地看到AI技術已經在下游企業端產生了實實在在的利潤與正向循環。AI泡沫真的存在嗎？還是市場因為短期的資金面緊張而錯殺了真正具有護城河的優質公司？影片最後，我也特別提醒大家，在這種波動極大的市場中，千萬不要使用槓桿（如三倍做多ETF）。根據賭徒破產理論，頻繁的槓桿交易在長期的數學概率下，爆倉機率幾乎是100%。投資是一場馬拉松，學會利用市場的恐懼，尋找估值合理的優質藍籌股與科技股，才能在市場反轉時獲得豐厚的回報。少動多看，讓利潤奔跑。 #美股分析 #特斯拉暴跌 #谷歌財報 #AI泡沫 #美債收益率 #美股投資 #價值投資 #ServiceNow #宏觀經濟 #股票分析 The global stock market has recently experienced extreme volatility. With Brent crude oil approaching $100, rising geopolitical tensions, and the 30-year US Treasury yield breaking past 5.1%, market panic is spreading rapidly. Many new investors are feeling overwhelmed by the recent crash of Big Tech stocks like Tesla and Google. In today’s video, we cut through the macroeconomic noise and deep-dive into the latest earnings reports and earnings calls of these tech giants to uncover the hidden opportunities amidst the market's extreme pessimism. While the market is paralyzed by the fear of Fed rate hikes and war, we must focus on the fundamentals and the true profitability of these companies. Google's recent earnings report showed record-high capital expenditures and negative free cash flow, triggering a massive sell-off. However, if you break down Google Cloud’s impressive 35.6% operating margin and its massive $514 billion backlog, the truth emerges: this isn't reckless cash burning. It's a "strategic loss" driven by an unprecedented demand for AI computing power. Furthermore, by analyzing the phenomenal data from ServiceNow, a leader in the AI application space, we can clearly see that AI technology is already generating real profits and a positive feedback loop for downstream enterprises. Is the AI bubble real? Or is the market mistakenly punishing high-quality companies with deep moats due to short-term liquidity fears? Finally, I want to strongly warn against using leverage (such as 3x leveraged ETFs) in such a highly volatile market. According to the Gambler's Ruin theory, frequent leveraged trading almost guarantees a 100% chance of blowing up your account over the long run. Investing is a marathon. Learn to capitalize on the market's fear, find fundamentally sound blue-chip and tech stocks with reasonable valuations, and you will reap the rewards when the market inevitably turns. Stay calm, be patient, and let your profits run. #StockMarket #TeslaCrash #GoogleEarnings #AIBubble #TreasuryYields #Investing #ValueInvesting #ServiceNow #Macroeconomics #StockAnalysis —————— 📌 投資風險免責聲明本頻道所有內容僅代表個人觀點與研究分享，僅供學習與參考，不構成任何形式之投資建議、投資邀約或買賣推薦。金融市場具有不確定性與波動風險，過往表現不代表未來結果。任何投資決策請依自身財務狀況與風險承受能力獨立判斷，盈虧自負。本頻道對因使用相關內容所產生之任何直接或間接損失，概不負責。 📌 Investment Disclaimer All content on this channel reflects personal opinions and research and is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendations, or solicitation. Financial markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Viewers are responsible for their own investment decisions. The channel assumes no liability for any losses incurred.

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資料擷取時間：2026-09-07T08:21:56.000000Z

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